Metoda opțiunii reale.

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Real options valuation - Wikipedia

Types of real options[ edit ] Simple Examples Investment This simple example shows the relevance of the real option to delay investment and wait for further information, and is adapted from "Investment Example". Consider a firm that has the option to invest in a new factory.

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It can invest this year or next year. The question is: when should the firm invest?

Cursul are un puternic caracter aplicativ, fiind dezvoltat pe studii de caz semnificative pentru procesul de evaluare a companiilor listate mature, de creştere, de servicii financiare, de active intangibile etc. De asemenea, vor fi evaluate şi companii de interes personal al cursanţilor de la curs.

If the firm invests this year, it has an income stream earlier. But, if it invests next year, the firm obtains further information about the state of the economy, which can prevent it from investing metoda opțiunii reale losses. The firm knows its discounted cash flows if it invests this year: 5M.

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If it invests next year, the discounted cash flows are 6M with a The investment cost is 4M. If the firm invests next year, the present value of the investment cost is 3.

Нарриллиан вообще не появлялся; наверное, был сыт по горло всей историей. Осталось только изображение Алистры, печально глядящей сверху вниз на Элвина. Элвин наклонил гравитационное поле, встал на ноги и подошел к материализовавшемуся столику. На нем появилась чаша с экзотическими фруктами.

Following the net present value rule for investment, the firm should invest this year because the discounted cash flows 5M are greater than the investment costs 4M by 1M. Yet, if the firm waits for next year, it only invests if discounted cash flows do not decrease.

До конца жизни ты будешь считать это истиной, и твою историю узнают в Диаспаре. Таким образом, Лис утратит интерес для будущих исследователей; они уверятся, что в Лисе нет ничего таинственного. Серанис, сделав паузу, озабоченно взглянула на Элвина. - Мы очень сожалеем и просим у тебя прощения, пока ты нас еще помнишь. Ты можешь не соглашаться с нашим приговором, но нам известно многое из того, что тебе недоступно.

If discounted cash flows decrease to 3M, then investment is no longer profitable. If, they grow to 6M, then the firm invests. This implies that the firm invests next year with a Thus the value to invest next year is 1. Given that the value to invest next year exceeds the value to invest this year, the firm should wait for further information to prevent losses.

metoda opțiunii reale

This simple example shows how the net present value may lead the firm to take unnecessary risk, which could be prevented by real options valuation. Staged Investment Staged investments are quite often in the pharmaceutical, mineral, and oil industries.

In this example, it is studied a staged investment abroad in which a firm decides whether to open one or two stores in a foreign country.

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  3. Они теперь знают о нас, так что нет смысла скрываться и .

This is adapted from "Staged Investment Example". The firm does not know how well its stores are accepted in a foreign metoda opțiunii reale. If their stores have high demand, the discounted cash flows per store is 10M.

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If their stores have low demand, the discounted cash flows per store is 5M. It is also known that if the store's demand is independent of the store: if one store has high demand, the other also has high demand. The investment cost per store is 8M. Should the firm invest in one store, two stores, or not invest?

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The net present value suggests the firm should not invest: the net present value is But is it the best alternative? Following real options valuation, it is not: the firm has the real option to open one store this year, wait a year to know its demand, and invest in the new store next year if demand is high.

The value to open one store this year is 7. Thus the value of the real option to invest in one store, wait a year, and invest next year is 0.

Given this, the firm should opt by opening one store. This simple example shows that a negative net present value does not imply that the firm should not invest. The flexibility available to management — i.

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